Dr. Matthew Holden is an applied mathematician using dynamic models and decision theory to improve conservation planning when conservation benefits depend on how humans modify their behaviour in response to policy. Some of his projects include saving the African elephant from poaching for ivory and developing novel quantitative methods for invasive and threatened species management. He earned his PhD in Applied mathematics at Cornell University, winning a National Science Foundation Graduate Research fellowship to work on optimization problems in fisheries management, invasive species control, and sustainable agriculture. He received his bachelor’s degree from the University of California, Davis, where he won the University Medal, working on the effect of habitat fragmentation on species persistence.
Journal Article: Spread management priorities to limit emerald ash borer (<i>Agrilus planipennis</i>) impacts on United States street trees
Hudgins, Emma J., Hanson, Jeffrey O., MacQuarrie, Chris J. K., Yemshanov, Denys, Baker, Christopher M., Chadès, Iadine, Holden, Matthew H., McDonald‐Madden, Eve and Bennett, Joseph R. (2024). Spread management priorities to limit emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis) impacts on United States street trees. Conservation Science and Practice. doi: 10.1111/csp2.13087
Journal Article: Marine protected areas can benefit biodiversity even when bycatch species only partially overlap fisheries
Erm, Philip, Balmford, Andrew, Krueck, Nils C., Takashina, Nao and Holden, Matthew H. (2024). Marine protected areas can benefit biodiversity even when bycatch species only partially overlap fisheries. Journal of Applied Ecology. doi: 10.1111/1365-2664.14595
Journal Article: Optimizing protected area expansion and enforcement to conserve exploited species
Timms, Liam and Holden, Matthew H. (2024). Optimizing protected area expansion and enforcement to conserve exploited species. Biological Conservation, 290 110463, 110463. doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2024.110463
Zooplankton: the missing link in modelling the ocean carbon cycle
(2023–2026) ARC Discovery Projects
(2020) Queensland Government Department of Environment and Science
The value of model complexity for fisheries management
(2019–2023) ARC Discovery Early Career Researcher Award
On quantitative indices and modelling of harvested fish populations
Doctor Philosophy
Optimising the spatial allocation of conservation resources to minimise extinction risk
Doctor Philosophy
Proximate factors of Mushy Tuna Syndrome and an amelioration plan for South Pacific fishers and processors
Doctor Philosophy
Hudgins, Emma J., Hanson, Jeffrey O., MacQuarrie, Chris J. K., Yemshanov, Denys, Baker, Christopher M., Chadès, Iadine, Holden, Matthew H., McDonald‐Madden, Eve and Bennett, Joseph R. (2024). Spread management priorities to limit emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis) impacts on United States street trees. Conservation Science and Practice. doi: 10.1111/csp2.13087
Erm, Philip, Balmford, Andrew, Krueck, Nils C., Takashina, Nao and Holden, Matthew H. (2024). Marine protected areas can benefit biodiversity even when bycatch species only partially overlap fisheries. Journal of Applied Ecology. doi: 10.1111/1365-2664.14595
Optimizing protected area expansion and enforcement to conserve exploited species
Timms, Liam and Holden, Matthew H. (2024). Optimizing protected area expansion and enforcement to conserve exploited species. Biological Conservation, 290 110463, 110463. doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2024.110463
Rogers, Andrew M., Yong, Russell Q.‐Y. and Holden, Matthew H. (2023). The house of a thousand species: The untapped potential of comprehensive biodiversity censuses of urban properties. Ecology, 105 (2) e4225, e4225. doi: 10.1002/ecy.4225
Overcoming the impossibility of age-balanced harvest
Filar, Jerzy A., Holden, Matthew H., Mendiolar, Manuela and Streipert, Sabrina H. (2023). Overcoming the impossibility of age-balanced harvest. Mathematical Biosciences, 367 109111, 109111. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2023.109111
Is mushy tuna syndrome a growing problem for the tuna industry?
Peter, Soni Maria Jacob, Blomberg, Simone P., Holden, Matthew H., Hoffman, Louwrens C. and Tibbetts, Ian R. (2023). Is mushy tuna syndrome a growing problem for the tuna industry?. Foods, 12 (19) 3590, 1-11. doi: 10.3390/foods12193590
The biodiversity benefits of marine protected areas in well-regulated fisheries
Erm, Philip, Balmford, Andrew and Holden, Matthew H. (2023). The biodiversity benefits of marine protected areas in well-regulated fisheries. Biological Conservation, 284 110049, 1-9. doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2023.110049
MOO-GAPS: A multi-objective optimization model for global animal production and sustainability
Castonguay, Adam C., Polasky, Stephen, Holden, Matthew H., Herrero, Mario, Chang, Jinfeng, Mason-D’Croz, Daniel, Godde, Cecile, Lee, Katie, Bryan, Brett A., Gerber, James, Game, Edward T. and McDonald-Madden, Eve (2023). MOO-GAPS: A multi-objective optimization model for global animal production and sustainability. Journal of Cleaner Production, 396 136440, 1-13. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.136440
Navigating sustainability trade-offs in global beef production
Castonguay, Adam C., Polasky, Stephen, H. Holden, Matthew, Herrero, Mario, Mason-D’Croz, Daniel, Godde, Cecile, Chang, Jinfeng, Gerber, James, Witt, G. Bradd, Game, Edward T., A. Bryan, Brett, Wintle, Brendan, Lee, Katie, Bal, Payal and McDonald-Madden, Eve (2023). Navigating sustainability trade-offs in global beef production. Nature Sustainability, 6 (3), 284-294. doi: 10.1038/s41893-022-01017-0
Modeling total predation to avoid perverse outcomes from cat control in a data‐poor island ecosystem
Plein, Michaela, O'Brien, Katherine R., Holden, Matthew H., Adams, Matthew P., Baker, Christopher M., Bean, Nigel G., Sisson, Scott A., Bode, Michael, Mengersen, Kerrie L. and McDonald‐Madden, Eve (2022). Modeling total predation to avoid perverse outcomes from cat control in a data‐poor island ecosystem. Conservation Biology, 36 (5) e13916. doi: 10.1111/cobi.13916
From climate change to pandemics: decision science can help scientists have impact
Baker, Christopher M., Campbell, Patricia T., Chades, Iadine, Dean, Angela J., Hester, Susan M., Holden, Matthew H., McCaw, James M., McVernon, Jodie, Moss, Robert, Shearer, Freya M. and Possingham, Hugh P. (2022). From climate change to pandemics: decision science can help scientists have impact. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, 10 792749. doi: 10.3389/fevo.2022.792749
O’Bryan, Christopher J., Patton, Nicholas R., Hone, Jim, Lewis, Jesse S., Berdejo‐Espinola, Violeta, Risch, Derek R., Holden, Matthew H. and McDonald‐Madden, Eve (2021). Invasive wild pigs (Sus scrofa) as a human‐mediated source of soil carbon emissions: Uncertainties and future directions. Global Change Biology, 28 (3), e1-e3. doi: 10.1111/gcb.15992
Unrecognized threat to global soil carbon by a widespread invasive species
O’Bryan, Christopher J., Patton, Nicholas R., Hone, Jim, Lewis, Jesse S., Berdejo‐Espinola, Violeta, Risch, Derek R., Holden, Matthew H. and McDonald‐Madden, Eve (2021). Unrecognized threat to global soil carbon by a widespread invasive species. Global Change Biology, 28 (3) gcb.15769, 1-6. doi: 10.1111/gcb.15769
Holden, Matthew H. and Lockyer, Jakeb (2021). Poacher-population dynamics when legal trade of naturally deceased organisms funds anti-poaching enforcement. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 517 110618, 1-10. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110618
Assessing the accuracy of density‐independent demographic models for predicting species ranges
Holden, Matthew H., Yen, Jian D. L., Briscoe, Natalie J., Lahoz‐Monfort, José J., Salguero‐Gómez, Roberto, Vesk, Peter A. and Guillera‐Arroita, Gurutzeta (2020). Assessing the accuracy of density‐independent demographic models for predicting species ranges. Ecography, 44 (3), 345-357. doi: 10.1111/ecog.05250
Intense human pressure is widespread across terrestrial vertebrate ranges
O'Bryan, Christopher J., Allan, James R., Holden, Matthew, Sanderson, Christopher, Venter, Oscar, Di Marco, Moreno, McDonald-Madden, Eve and Watson, James E.M. (2020). Intense human pressure is widespread across terrestrial vertebrate ranges. Global Ecology and Conservation, 21 e00882, e00882. doi: 10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00882
Adams, Matthew P., Sisson, Scott A., Helmstedt, Kate J., Baker, Christopher M., Michaela Plein, Holden, Matthew H., Holloway, Jacinta, Mengersen, Kerrie L. and McDonald-Madden, Eve (2020). Informing management decisions for ecological networks, using dynamic models calibrated to noisy time-series data. Ecology Letters, 23 (4) ele.13465, 607-619. doi: 10.1111/ele.13465
Forecasting species range dynamics with process‐explicit models: matching methods to applications
Briscoe, Natalie J., Elith, Jane, Salguero‐Gómez, Roberto, Lahoz‐Monfort, José J., Camac, James S., Giljohann, Katherine M., Holden, Matthew H., Hradsky, Bronwyn A., Kearney, Michael R., McMahon, Sean M., Phillips, Ben L., Regan, Tracey J., Rhodes, Jonathan R., Vesk, Peter A., Wintle, Brendan A., Yen, Jian D.L. and Guillera‐Arroita, Gurutzeta (2019). Forecasting species range dynamics with process‐explicit models: matching methods to applications. Ecology Letters, 22 (11) ele.13348, 1940-1956. doi: 10.1111/ele.13348
How conservation initiatives go to scale
Mills, Morena, Bode, Michael, Mascia, Michael B., Weeks, Rebecca, Gelcich, Stefan, Dudley, Nigel, Govan, Hugh, Archibald, Carla L., Romero-de-Diego, Cristina, Holden, Matthew, Biggs, Duan, Glew, Louise, Naidoo, Robin and Possingham, Hugh P. (2019). How conservation initiatives go to scale. Nature Sustainability, 2 (10), 935-940. doi: 10.1038/s41893-019-0384-1
Foreword to the Special Issue on Natural Resource Mathematics
Holden, Matthew H., Lee, Sharon and Yang, Wen-Hsi (2019). Foreword to the Special Issue on Natural Resource Mathematics. Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 24 (4), 365-367. doi: 10.1007/s10666-019-09677-7
A framework to evaluate animal welfare implications of policies on rhino horn trade
Derkley, Tessa, Biggs, Duan, Holden, Matthew and Phillips, Clive (2019). A framework to evaluate animal welfare implications of policies on rhino horn trade. Biological Conservation, 235, 236-249. doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2019.05.004
The mesoscavenger release hypothesis and implications for ecosystem and human well‐being
O'Bryan, Christopher J., Holden, Matthew H. and Watson, James E.M. (2019). The mesoscavenger release hypothesis and implications for ecosystem and human well‐being. Ecology Letters, 22 (9) ele.13288, 1340-1348. doi: 10.1111/ele.13288
Tulloch, Ayesha I. T., Auerbach, Nancy, Avery-Gomm, Stephanie, Dickman, Chris R., Fisher, Diana O., Grantham, Hedley, Holden, Matthew H., Lavery, Tyrone H., Leseberg, Nicholas P., O’Connor, James, Roberson, Leslie, Smyth, Anita K., Stone, Zoe, Tulloch, Vivitskaia, Turak, Eren, Watson, James E. M. and Wardle, Glenda M. (2019). Reply to ‘Consider species specialism when publishing datasets’ and ‘Decision trees for data publishing may exacerbate conservation conflict’. Nature Ecology and Evolution, 3 (3), 320-321. doi: 10.1038/s41559-019-0805-6
Holden, Matthew H., Biggs, Duan, Brink, Henry, Bal, Payal, Rhodes, Jonathan and McDonald-Madden, Eve (2018). Increase anti-poaching law-enforcement or reduce demand for wildlife products?: a framework to guide strategic conservation investments. Conservation Letters, 12 (3) e12618, e12618. doi: 10.1111/conl.12618
A decision tree for assessing the risks and benefits of publishing biodiversity data
Tulloch, Ayesha I. T., Auerbach, Nancy, Avery-Gomm, Stephanie, Bayraktarov, Elisa, Butt, Nathalie, Dickman, Chris R., Ehmke, Glenn, Fisher, Diana O., Grantham, Hedley, Holden, Matthew H., Lavery, Tyrone H., Leseberg, Nicholas P., Nicholls, Miles, O'Connor, James, Roberson, Leslie, Smyth, Anita K., Stone, Zoe, Tulloch, Vivitskaia, Turak, Eren, Wardle, Glenda M. and Watson, James E. M. (2018). A decision tree for assessing the risks and benefits of publishing biodiversity data. Nature Ecology and Evolution, 2 (8), 1209-1217. doi: 10.1038/s41559-018-0608-1
Informing network management using fuzzy cognitive maps
Baker, Christopher M., Holden, Matthew H., Plein, Michaela, McCarthy, Michael A. and Possingham, Hugh P. (2018). Informing network management using fuzzy cognitive maps. Biological Conservation, 224, 122-128. doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2018.05.031
Reach and messages of the world's largest ivory burn
Braczkowski, Alexander, Holden, Matthew H., O'Bryan, Christopher, Choi, Chi-Yeung, Gan, Xiaojing, Beesley, Nicholas, Gao, Yufang, Allan, James, Tyrrell, Peter, Stiles, Daniel, Brehony, Peadar, Meney, Revocatus, Brink, Henry, Takashina, Nao, Lin, Ming-Ching, Lin, Hsien-Yung, Rust, Niki, Salmo, Severino G., Watson, James Em, Kahumbu, Paula, Maron, Martine, Possingham, Hugh P. and Biggs, Duan (2018). Reach and messages of the world's largest ivory burn. Conservation Biology, 32 (4), 765-773. doi: 10.1111/cobi.13097
Ivory crisis: role of bioprinting technology (Response)
Biggs, Duan, Smith, Robert J., Adams, Vanessa M., Brink, Henry, Cook, Carly N., Cooney, Rosie, Holden, Matthew H., Maron, Martine, Phelps, Jacob, Possingham, Hugh P., Redford, Kent H., Scholes, Robert J., Sutherland, William J., Underwood, Fiona M. and Milner-Gulland, E. J. (2018). Ivory crisis: role of bioprinting technology (Response). Science, 360 (6386), 277-278. doi: 10.1126/science.aat1596
Ocean zoning within a sparing versus sharing framework
McGowan, Jennifer, Bode, Michael, Holden, Matthew H., Davis, Katrina, Krueck, Nils C., Beger, Maria, Yates, Katherine L. and Possingham, Hugh P. (2018). Ocean zoning within a sparing versus sharing framework. Theoretical Ecology, 11 (2), 245-254. doi: 10.1007/s12080-017-0364-x
Breaking the deadlock on ivory
Biggs, Duan, Holden, Matthew H., Braczkowski, Alex, Cook, Carly N., Milner-Gulland, E. J., Phelps, Jacob, Scholes, Robert J., Smith, Robert J., Underwood, Fiona M., Adams, Vanessa M., Allan, James, Brink, H., Cooney, R., Gao, Y., Hutton, J., Macdonald-Madden, Eve, Maron, Martine, Redford, Kent H., Sutherland, William J. and Possingham, Hugh P. (2017). Breaking the deadlock on ivory. Science, 358 (6369), 1378-1381. doi: 10.1126/science.aan5215
Projecting the performance of conservation interventions
Law, Elizabeth A., Ferraro, Paul J., Arcese, Peter, Bryan, Brett A., Davis, Katrina, Gordon, Ascelin, Holden, Matthew H., Iacona, Gwenllian, Marcos Martinez, Raymundo, McAlpine, Clive A., Rhodes, Jonathan R., Sze, Jocelyne S. and Wilson, Kerrie A. (2017). Projecting the performance of conservation interventions. Biological Conservation, 215, 142-151. doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2017.08.029
Conservation from the grave: human burials to fund the conservation of threatened species
Holden, Matthew H. and McDonald-Madden, Eve (2017). Conservation from the grave: human burials to fund the conservation of threatened species. Conservation Letters, 11 (1) e12421, e12421. doi: 10.1111/conl.12421
Holden, Matthew H. and McDonald-Madden, Eve (2017). High prices for rare species can drive large populations extinct: the anthropogenic Allee effect revisited. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 429, 170-180. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2017.06.019
Academic conferences urgently need environmental policies
Holden, Matthew H., Butt, Nathalie, Chauvenet, Alienor, Plein, Michaela, Stringer, Martin and Chades, Iadine (2017). Academic conferences urgently need environmental policies. Nature Ecology and Evolution, 1 (9), 1211-1212. doi: 10.1038/s41559-017-0296-2
Human judgment vs quantitative models for the management of ecological resources
Holden, Matthew H. and Ellner, Stephen P. (2016). Human judgment vs quantitative models for the management of ecological resources. Ecological Applications, 26 (5), 1553-1565. doi: 10.1890/15-1295
Elephant poaching: track the impact of Kenya's ivory burn
Biggs, Duan, Holden, Matthew H., Braczkowski, Alexander R. and Possingham, Hugh P. (2016). Elephant poaching: track the impact of Kenya's ivory burn. Nature, 534 (7606), 179-179. doi: 10.1038/534179a
The economic benefit of time-varying surveillance effort for invasive species management
Holden, Matthew H., Nyrop, Jan P. and Ellner, Stephen P. (2016). The economic benefit of time-varying surveillance effort for invasive species management. Journal of Applied Ecology, 53 (3), 712-721. doi: 10.1111/1365-2664.12617
Optimal escapement in stage-structured fisheries with environmental stochasticity
Holden, Matthew H. and Conrad, Jon M. (2015). Optimal escapement in stage-structured fisheries with environmental stochasticity. Mathematical Biosciences, 269, 76-85. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2015.08.021
Optimal control and cold war dynamics between plant and herbivore
Low, Candace, Ellner, Stephen P. and Holden, Matthew H. (2013). Optimal control and cold war dynamics between plant and herbivore. American Naturalist, 182 (2), E25-E39. doi: 10.1086/670810
Holden, Matthew H., Ellner, Stephen P., Lee, Doo-Hyung, Nyrop, Jan P. and Sanderson, John P. (2012). Designing an effective trap cropping strategy: the effects of attraction, retention and plant spatial distribution. Journal of Applied Ecology, 49 (3), 715-722. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2012.02137.x
Mendiolar, Manuela, Filar, Jerzy A., O'Neill, Michael F., Martin, Tyson, Teixeira, Daniella, Webley, James and Holden, Matthew (2023). Estimating recreational catch. 25th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Darwin, NT Australia, 9 to 14 July 2023. Canberra, ACT Australia: Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand. doi: 10.36334/modsim.2023.mendiolar
O'Bryan, Christopher J., McDonald-Madden, Eve, Hone, Jim, Holden, Matthew H. and Patton, Nicholas R. (2021, 07 23). Los jabalíes, una de las especies invasoras más dañinas, liberan cada año las mismas emisiones que un millón de automoviles The Conversation
O'Bryan, Christopher J., McDonald-Madden, Eve, Hone, Jim , Holden, Matthew H. and Nicholas R. Patton (2021, 07 20). ‘One of the most damaging invasive species on Earth’: wild pigs release the same emissions as 1 million cars each year The Conversation
Custom training and technical support for the fishery stock assessment software ‘stock synthesis’
O'Neill, M. F., Lovett, R., Bessell-Browne, P., Streipert, S., Leigh, G., Campbell, A., Northrop, A., Wortmann, J., Helidoniotis, F., Yang, W. H., Holden, M. and French, S. (2020). Custom training and technical support for the fishery stock assessment software ‘stock synthesis’. Brisbane, QLD, Australia: Department of Agriculture and Fisheries, Queensland.
Data for "Assessing Monitoring Program Design Options for Koalas in South East Queensland"
Rhodes, Jonathan and Holden, Matthew (2020). Data for "Assessing Monitoring Program Design Options for Koalas in South East Queensland". The University of Queensland. (Dataset) doi: 10.14264/7288e73
Harvest strategies for the Torres Strait Finfish fishery
Hutton, Trevor, O’Neill, Michael, Leigh, George, Holden, Matt and Deng, Roy (2019). Harvest strategies for the Torres Strait Finfish fishery. Canberra, ACT, Australia: Australian Government Australian Fisheries Management Authority.
Ivory up in flames, but who really noticed? How messages on elephant poaching might be missed
Holden, Matthew H., Braczkowski, Alexander Richard, O'Bryan, Christopher, Biggs, Duan, Possingham, Hugh, Allan, James and Watson, James (2018, 03 12). Ivory up in flames, but who really noticed? How messages on elephant poaching might be missed The Conversation
Human judgment vs. quantitative models for the management of ecological resources
Holden, Matthew H (2016). Human judgment vs. quantitative models for the management of ecological resources. Dryad Digital Repository. (Dataset)
Zooplankton: the missing link in modelling the ocean carbon cycle
(2023–2026) ARC Discovery Projects
(2020) Queensland Government Department of Environment and Science
The value of model complexity for fisheries management
(2019–2023) ARC Discovery Early Career Researcher Award
On quantitative indices and modelling of harvested fish populations
Doctor Philosophy — Principal Advisor
Other advisors:
Optimising the spatial allocation of conservation resources to minimise extinction risk
Doctor Philosophy — Associate Advisor
Other advisors:
Proximate factors of Mushy Tuna Syndrome and an amelioration plan for South Pacific fishers and processors
Doctor Philosophy — Associate Advisor
Other advisors:
The exposure and contribution of predators and scavengers to humans
(2020) Doctor Philosophy — Associate Advisor
Other advisors: